Piazza d’Italia con cavallo by Giorgio de Chirico, who lived through the Spanish flu pandemic
Traditionally Black Saturday is the scariest day in the Catholic calendar—adults shushing children by saying “Patay ang Diyos!” (“God is dead,” and they weren’t quoting Voltaire). On this bleak day I figured I might as well have that dark night of the soul I’ve been warding off with routines and books.
Might as well plunge in: We’re not going back to the way things were on March 12, 2020. On April 30 we’re not going to run out the door, hug the friends and family we’ve missed, go out to dinner at the packed restaurant everyone was raving about, and then wind up at a bar to drink too much and have random, life-changing conversations with fascinating strangers who never turn up on dating apps. Those days are gone.
This is dire, so if you’re feeling fragile, stop reading now.
The second we come out of the house and mingle with other people, infection rates will go up. If too many people get sick, there will be further lockdowns. We cannot count on herd immunity until the vaccine arrives, and that will take at least 12 months. I’ve been thinking of the pandemic as an amorphous Big Bad, so I’ve attached numbers to my fear to give it clarity.
There are 13 million people in Metro Manila. Assume a Thanos snap scenario: half the population gets coronavirus. That’s 6.5 million people. According to data reports from different countries, 20 percent of the infected need hospitalization. That’s 1.3 million people. 5 percent of them will need to be in the ICU. That’s 65,000 people. Metro Manila’s hospitals cannot handle that, and the people with other diseases. People will die. People we care about may get sick and die.
Lockdown slows down contagion, but it cannot be extended indefinitely because we need to go to work or the economy will collapse. The coming months will be tough. Social distancing has to be strictly enforced. Shops will have to admit fewer customers on their premises, move online, or shut down. The travel and tourism industry may try to reopen, but forget about cheap fares on crowded flights and packed festivals. Organizers of parties and events have to rethink their businesses. Many people will lose their jobs. With fewer jobs to be had, many in the middle class will fall into poverty. Poor families will starve. Hunger, mental illness, domestic violence, other diseases that cannot be attended to by Covid-overwhelmed hospitals will kill more people than coronavirus does. Desperation will drive people to commit crime. The immediate future looks bleak.
In Lord of the Rings terms we have just reached Moria. In Dune terms, Sardaukar are chasing us into the desert and into the mouth of Shai-Hulud. I refer to Tolkien and Dune (and Buffy and the Avengers, and sure let’s bring in Game of Thrones and every epic fantasy we’ve ever followed) not just to make myself feel better, but as a reminder that this terrible time will come to an end. We just have to make it through the next 18 months. The occasional dark night of worry, self-pity, even hysteria is okay because we have to let our fear out or it will consume us. But we cannot give in to despair. Our survival depends on believing that we will overcome this, and doing what we must to overcome this.
This is the litany. Wear mask and gloves outside the house. Always be six feet away from other people. Wash your hands constantly. Take care of yourself. Take care of other people (from a distance). Support the frontliners, including the workers who keep groceries, pharmacies, and public utilities running. Donate to organizations that give food assistance to communities in need.
Do your work as best as you can. Push government to release the social amelioration funds now. If you have any ideas at all about how we can address this crisis, even far-out ideas since we are in unknown territory now, send them over. The systems and conditions, excesses and absences that allowed the virus to rip through the world and shut it down—those must change. Be of good cheer. Remind yourself that this pandemic will end.
We are standing in the rubble of the old world, and we have to build a new and better one. I want to see that.