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Roger Federer lost to world number 98 Mardy Fish in the semis at Indian Wells. No offence to Fish, who beat Davydenko and Nalbandian in the same tournament, but this just doesn’t happen. Not even with mononucleosis. Before that The Fed had breezed through his matches. The other semifinal pit Rafael Nadal against eventual winner Novak Djokovic. That’s two guys who make The Fed feel vulnerable. I suspect he did not want to play either of them, so he lost to Fish. I don’t think it’s fear or a lack of nerve. I suspect it’s a form of rebellion. (Or petulance. Basta. Ayoko.) The Fed is the best tennis player in history, but not the greatest competitor. Get a coach, Roger.

If the simplest explanation is probably the correct one (Except in the Philippines, where as Butch points out the most bizarre explanation is probably right), then the reason for—or at least a major factor in—Roger Federer’s two losses this year is mononucleosis.

With The Fed temporarily incapacitated, who will seize the moment: Nadal or Djokovic? Neither. The beneficiary of Roger’s absence is Andy Roddick, who beat them both en route to the Dubai final. Roddick’s game has serious flaws (human backboard), but he has the grace to acknowledge them. After beating Djokovic he said that sometimes he can play tennis and not just serve. Good work, Andy. And who ultimately benefits from the resurgence of Roddick? The Fed.

The subject was recycling and cjspotless brought up the Fed. So. Roger Federer crashed out of the first round of the Dubai Open, losing to Andy Murray. As radiohead pointed out, the Fed spoke disparagingly about Murray in the post-game interview. You don’t do that to the guy who just beat you, it’s pikon. And Roger generally doesn’t do that, he’s got good manners, but then he doesn’t generally get bounced out in the opening round, either. He just doesn’t lose, period, and after his semifinal loss at the Australian Open, it’s not surprising that talk has turned to whether his reign is ending. It certainly gives sportswriters something different to write about, because face it, they’re tired of composing encomiums to the Fed. It’s been four years of near-total domination; no one in the Open era has achieved anything like it. The Fed has been so dominant that Rafael Nadal, who has the talent and the cojones to be Number One, has been languishing at Number Two for years.

I think the Fed is in a slump and he’ll get over it. He usually has a bad patch between Melbourne and Roland Garros, then roars back in time for Wimbledon. Has he gotten a coach yet? May I suggest Andre Agassi again? The coach’s job would not be to tinker with his game, but to help keep his head screwed on properly. It’s interesting to note that the Fed’s losses this year have been to players who come across as assholes on the court (though they may be perfectly lovely off it). In both cases he missed shots that he can usually make blindfolded, he couldn’t pull himself together. My theory is that these guys rattled him.

People forget that Roger is not really the toughest of competitors. Early in his career he was mentally fragile and given to on-court tantrums. I suspect that his focus requires shutting out everything but the ball, and lately the other player, the umpire, the whole world has been getting in. It’s called Life.

We want our sports heroes to display grit and guts. Roger Federer has been allowed to flout that rule because his tennis is truly extraordinary (Describing why the Fed is great is sort of like explaining why math is beautiful). He’s developed an aura of invincibility despite his fragility. Amazing when you think about it. I believe the Federer era is not over, but what if it is? Nothing lasts forever. At some point, you have to let your superheroes go.

Marat’s back, originally uploaded by 160507.

Haha bad pun. Novak Djokovic wins the Australian Open men’s singles title, beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6 (7-2). First player who is neither Federer nor Nadal to win a major since Safin in ‘05.

Questions. Djokovic seems to run out of breath a lot, does he have asthma? Will Tsonga do well on other surfaces? Will the very talented Richard Gasquet ever realize tennis is a competitive sport? Will Baghdatis’s new hairstyle be luckier? Those tattoos, did you see Eastern Promises? Will Federer get a coach? What does Mirka think? Did Nadal’s legs fit in an economy-class seat? Will Rafa win his fourth title at Roland Garros? Is the field wide open now? I miss Goran Ivanisevic, what’s he doing these days?

Chokovic didn’t. Novak Djokovic makes it to the Australian Open final, beating Roger Federer 7-6, 6-3, 7-6. And 2008 won’t be another Federal/Naderer year. Guess I’ll have my annual Federer dream a little early this year. (Roger, Rafa is not the only other player on earth. Ditch the history spiel, you need to enjoy killing on the court. Maybe get a coach. What about Andre?)

So. Tsonga.

P.S. Did someone just say Marat?! You want Tsonga to have a career like Marat’s?! Oh, as a curse. Sorry, we get emotional at the mention of Saffy’s Russian Tartar father—who is 28 today (Sunday) and hurtling down the ATP rankings!

Baghdatis ‘06, Gonzales ‘07, Safin ‘04 all had a great run to the final, then got a walloping from the same guy. (Marat won in 05). I love Marat, but he’s the great squandered genius of his time. And Bags, another wonderful wasted talent. I don’t like this Next Something or other. Allow Tsonga to be the great Tsonga.

I think The Fed is getting bored. I’m not sure winning without really trying is good for anyone. Where’s the passion? Andre Agassi for coach! As for Nads, he’d never made the semis in Melbourne before this year, so he still gains. (Double Ayyy: Rafa had to fly home economy-class. Can his massive quadriceps even fit in coach?) Meanwhile, Sharapova shrieks her way to victory, Ivanovic exits with ears bleeding. Seriously, Maria deserved it.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga just booked his place in the Australian Open final, destroying Rafael Nadal 6-2, 6-3, 6-2. Those biceps! It looks like he’s actually physically stronger than Rafa! Tomorrow’s semifinal pits Roger Federer against Novak Djokovic. Now Choke-ovich has been playing very well and The Fed has played just enough to win, but that is the whole point. Roger’s game is so complete, he doesn’t even have to play at maximum strength every time, he only has to win.

“I have to say a novena,” Mike declared.

“For a Federer fan you have very little faith,” I said. “I have accepted that he doesn’t need me, he’s going to win anyway.”

“The novena’s not for Roger,” said Mike, who never watches a match unless he already knows who won. “It’s for me. These matches give me ulcers.”

Lashing rain and howling wind, my favorite weather. As long as I’m snug indoors and not desperately flagging taxis on the side of the road with my shoes soaked while gusts tear the umbrella out of my hand.

I was talking to Mike, who’s helping to set up a new restaurant, when a brilliant idea whacked me upside the head: Bottomless drinks and topless waiters. At the mall. True, this would not be fair to the guys, but I’m sure they’ll think of something.

Mike reports that Roger Federer lost to David Nalbandian at the Madrid Masters—I haven’t been following the news, I tend to tune out when the slams are over. The Fed is vulnerable to clay court grinders who speak Spanish: Nalbandian, Cañas, Nadal. There are super-slow motion videos of The Fed on Youtube hitting mostly forehands. You see how so much stuff happens in a second, there’s simply no time for conscious planning. As the strings make contact with the ball—or is it right after?—he twists his wrist. Which imparts the ball with extra zing, and may also account for tendency to shank the ball.

Do you play tennis? Mike’s looking for opponents. He just realized that his trainer has been letting him win, what a bummer. First we’ll have the Spinstermike Vs Spookbob match, then we’ll schedule your matches. Hey, let’s have a tournament! You don’t have to be particularly good, but you will have to endure cruel and relentless heckling from the spectators. Players who burst into tears, have tantrums, or get pikon automatically lose the point; however, bonus points will be awarded for creative insults and curses.

Update: Sign up for the First Annual Z Cup! Winner gets. . .absolutely nothing! Well maybe a stuffed toy Zebra and all the chicken she or he can eat at JT’s Manukan. I will present the trophy as patron and more importantly, as someone three degrees of separation from Roger Federer. How it happened: I used to hang out with Ettore, who used to get beaten at tennis by Diana, who is Roger’s sister. Ha, my cheap thrills.

A friend reports that last week, at a dinner in her house, two ladies in their 60s nearly had a yelling match on the topic: Novak Djokovic: endearing or just annoying?

Djokovic with his crowd-pleasing antics was the sideshow at the US Open. The main show, as it has been for the last four years, was Roger Federer. Asad Raza has a thought-provoking piece at tennis.com on the workings of the Federer mind. “It’s not about the other guy, it’s about what you know you will summon from yourself at times of need.” It’s about mental economy. Conserve your strength. Identify the crucial moment. Strike.

Or as we say in my household, Be like a cat.

Fed shoes. Photo by Paul Zimmer from rogerfederer.com, originally uploaded by 160507.

US Open final: Federer defeats Djokovic, 7-6 (4), 7-6 (2), 6-4. My prediction was the Fed in four sets tops, with the Djoker fainting from heat exhaustion or throwing up in the third. (Note: When doing a Federer impression, it’s probably not a good idea to do his victory moment. It’s like cursing yourself.) Djokovic had the Fed early in the match and could’ve been up two sets to love, but the  backhand and I think the nerve failed him. Roger was not his usual brilliant self, but he didn’t have to be.

I have a theory as to why the Fed hasn’t won the French: he doesn’t like getting the outfit dirty. He could wear brown at Roland Garros, but brown is so. . .brown. Good to have three players on the tour now, because it’s been the Federal and Naderer show for years. By the way, if you can’t stand Maria Sharapova, you can watch her in the replays sitting in the players’ box with Robert De Niro, shrieking for Novak (thus ensuring continued TV coverage despite early exit, but how cynical we are).

Incidentally, I much prefer Adidas. And New Balance, because I read the insignia sideways as “Z”.

Treason! I have just discovered that friends who are supposed to be rooting for Roger Federer to win the US Open and his 12th Slam are secretly cheering for Novak Djokovic. That means you, Dorski. Oh the humanity! Just because he’s tall, cute, funny, does hilarious impressions of Nadal and Sharapova, and throws his T-shirt at the crowd to reveal spectacular torso, you abandon the quest for history?!

The Fed has to win because I don’t want to have another dream in which I’m berating him for my life.

Last Saturday I went to Manny del Rosario’s birthday party. So that’s what Embassy is like: long queue of people dressed to impress and waiting to get in. Made a mental note to call Jim Libiran and suggest a sequel to Tribu. Tribu 2: Shet, pare. Chus prefers Tribongga. In the climactic sequence there would be a walk-off, then a dance-off, then the in-crowd would send in their security guards to do the fighting. We left the place round 1 am, before anything exciting had happened, and went back to that 24-hour carinderia to eat lechong kawali, tokwa’t baboy and beef pares. Heavenly. You don’t get food like that at The Fort.

The party was 90% advertising folk. I had a chat—okay, we had to yell over the music, but in a polite way—with a risk management consultant. He said, Could you not write about Roger Federer? So here’s something about the Fed on the practice court from 3Quarks.

“Seen at close range, I can perhaps best describe his play as explosively graceful, or violently precise. He wasn’t very focussed, though, missing some shots and laughing, “Nein!” (Federer tends to exposulate in different langauges, using “Allez!” for the French, and “Come on!” in Queens.) At one point, Kiefer aced him, and Federer, without looking, smashed the ball off the tarp behind him, neatly banking it into the hands of a waiting hitting partner. It was the kind of thing you might see a magician do, yet for Federer it was just an absent-minded expression of annoyance. Such is life as the greatest practitioner ever of tennis.”